What will 2011 bring?
My personal and mostly unqualified perspective of the current state of the economy is that we're now in the "Waiting for a Sign" stage.
We know the economy is cyclical, so we know the economy has to get better someday. We just aren't sure when. Maybe this year will be the year.
(What has always fascinated me about economics is not the numbers but rather the psychology. If enough people think the economy will get better soon, they'll start acting like the economy will get better soon, and those actions will cause the economy to get better soon.)
A handful of new reports make me think 2011 might be a good year.
First, in a short survey of nonprofit executives conducted by financial consulting and search firm Beyond The Bottom Line, about two thirds of respondents (68 percent) say they expect economic growth in 2011. While most say they expect "slow growth" (1-9 percent), the total expecting growth at any rate is up from 58 percent in BTBL's 2010 survey.
That trend is similar to what ASAE found in its Winter 2010 Economic Impact Study. That study showed that the revenue outlook of association executives improved from 2009 to 2010:
The BTBL and ASAE studies aren't apples to apples, but they do indicate a sense of improvement. ASAE is conducting another follow-up survey to its Economic Impact Study reports, and results are expected to be available next month. I'll be interested to see if association executives' outlook improves again in the ASAE study, as well.
Taking a broader look:
- Business Roundtable's CEO Economic Outlook Survey shows corporate executives have an improving outlook for the next six months, with the Outlook Index at its highest point in more than four years.
- Consumer confidence, however, was down slightly in December.
- Interestingly, the U.S. stock market has historically performed at its best in the third year of a U.S. President's term (and 2011 begins year three for Obama).
I'm no economist, but the first business day of 2011 seemed like a good day to take a look at what the economy might bring us in the coming year. My sense is that each of us is just waiting for some signs that everyone else is feeling better about the economy. Maybe some of these notes above fit the bill. I'm curious what your association is expecting in 2011. Please share in the comments.
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