Didn't you hear? The recession is over
I am concerned. Had the occasion to speak with some association folks recently, and I was surprised at the optimism level. Don't get me wrong, I'm all for optimism, but my cause for concern is that this is false optimism.
After hitting it's recent low about a month ago, the Dow trickled back upwards for a while before flattening out for a few weeks. There were a couple positive economic indicators (and a few not-so-positive) and some encouraging words from the president and the Federal Reserve. And then there's the backbreaker: people are just tired of the economic reality, the endless news cycle, the bad news, the scandals. I think all of this has given people -- or at least some of the people I've talked to recently -- a notion that the worst is over.
I don't believe it. Keep a thimble full of optimism if it helps you get through the day, but don't close your eyes to reality. Associations traditionally are lagging indicators on the economy, meaning all the layoffs and bad news and such that we read about in the last six months, will begin to affect our bottom lines in the next six or nine months. A few months after it bottoms out for our members is when it will bottom out for us.
How fast will it bounce back? Anyone who thinks they can answer that is fooling themselves.
For more on what associations are doing and need to think about in this economy, see Economic Resources Online.
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Comments
So what is the new normal for the economy? It's quite possible former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld got it right (albeit in a different context) "There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know."
Posted by: Anonymous | April 20, 2009 3:40 PM
Really, Scott? Optimism gets you down? That's interesting. I've never stopped being optimistic, and we have yet to stop growing. If someone wants to listen to doom and gloom and hunker down and wait for the things they've always done to start working again, then good luck with that.
Or, when things they've always done stop working, they could start doing other things. This "bad economy" or whatever you want to call it represents a tremendous opportunity for associations to break free. IMHO.
Posted by: Kevin | April 20, 2009 7:19 PM
Hi Scott -- On the Marketing Membership blog, I did a post on April 13th titled, "Should you Plan for the Worst or Plan for the Best?". You may want to take a look at it. Perhaps it will give you a more positive perspective. Tony
http://membershipmarketing.blogspot.com/2009/04/should-you-plan-for-worst-or-plan-for.html
Posted by: Tony Rossell | April 21, 2009 3:21 PM
Whoa now Kevin, did I say optimism gets me down?
I could characterize your comment as you being a champion of the power of positive thinking -- if you believe something will be true, then it will happen -- but I don't think that sounds like you. I think you believe that taking action is better than inaction, and that all you can do is act with confidence that you are making the best decision you can. A few times it will work out exactly like you want; most of the time it will be different than what you want, but with some good and some bad; and sometimes you're going to let loose a real stinker, and it will go badly.
You say things are growing for you and that's good news. I do think many organizations are in the position to be looking for opportunities. But I think the economic situation is such that all organizations should also be more vigilant about looking for weaknesses in their own stuff. All I'm saying is, that vigilance is still very much warranted and it would be a mistake to stop looking for opportunities (if you're in a decent situation) or your own weaknesses with a heightened sense of how the economy is affecting your organization.
Posted by: Scott Briscoe | April 22, 2009 9:58 AM