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Author (and blogger) Michael Watkins discussed “predictable surprises”—disasters you should have, and probably did in some way, see coming—in his session on “Critical Success Strategies for Leaders at All Levels.” As Watkins described it, when a predictable surprise takes place, “you’re shocked and you’re saddened but you’re not really surprised.” You probably saw the signs, but felt it wasn’t possible or wasn’t feasible to take action—or planned to take action someday but didn’t put it high on your priority list.

According to Watkins, leaders miss predictable surprises in part because they have blinders on—preconceived notions, static assumptions, and overconfidence block their vision. And those blinders can become more rigid under stress. But he urged leaders in his audience to overcome these handicaps and instead have the courage to become a “problem finder” and “change mobilizer” who looks reality straight in the eye.